(Please cross reference to my previous post for simulation-based results: https://czxttkl.com/2023/01/15/dollar-cost-average-on-tqqq-vs-qqq/)
In this post, we use real data (from 2021 april to 2024 jan) to show that even after a bear market (in 2022), DCA on TQQQ is still more profitable than QQQ. UPRO is also more profitable than SPY but the margin is not that significant.
# https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
import yfinance as yf
def my_stock_return(tick):
stock = yf.Ticker(tick)
stock_hist = stock.history(start="2021-04-01", end="2024-01-12")
days = 0
total_share = 0
single_invest = 3000
total_invest = 0
total_invest_time = 0
for idx, row in stock_hist.iterrows():
if days % 10 == 0:
single_share = single_invest / row['Open']
total_share += single_share
total_invest += single_invest
total_invest_time += 1
days += 1
total_value = total_share * stock_hist.iloc[-1]["Close"]
print(f"tick={tick}")
print(f"days: {days}")
print(f'last day close: {stock_hist.iloc[-1]["Close"]}')
print(f"total_share: {total_share}")
print(f'total_value = total_share * last day close: {total_value}')
print(f"total_invest: {total_invest}, total_invest_time: {total_invest_time}")
print(f"total gain: {(total_value / total_invest - 1) * 100}%")
my_stock_return("TQQQ")
print("\n")
my_stock_return("QLD")
print("\n")
my_stock_return("QQQ")
print("\n")
my_stock_return("UPRO")
print("\n")
my_stock_return("SPUU")
print("\n")
my_stock_return("SPY")
print("\n")
Here is the result:
tick=TQQQ
days: 700
last day close: 50.279998779296875
total_share: 5908.547006195283
total_value = total_share * last day close: 297081.736258917
total_invest: 210000, total_invest_time: 70
total gain: 41.467493456627146%
tick=QLD
days: 700
last day close: 75.68000030517578
total_share: 3737.0006961799377
total_value = total_share * last day close: 282816.2138273398
total_invest: 210000, total_invest_time: 70
total gain: 34.674387536828476%
tick=QQQ
days: 700
last day close: 409.3500061035156
total_share: 636.3171528636028
total_value = total_share * last day close: 260476.4304084875
total_invest: 210000, total_invest_time: 70
total gain: 24.03639543261309%
tick=UPRO
days: 700
last day close: 54.790000915527344
total_share: 4596.7168995484735
total_value = total_share * last day close: 251854.12313468088
total_invest: 210000, total_invest_time: 70
total gain: 19.930534826038503%
tick=SPUU
days: 700
last day close: 103.43000030517578
total_share: 2430.3500485571817
total_value = total_share * last day close: 251371.1062639533
total_invest: 210000, total_invest_time: 70
total gain: 19.70052679235872%
tick=SPY
days: 700
last day close: 476.3500061035156
total_share: 508.7714829247962
total_value = total_share * last day close: 242353.29899652136
total_invest: 210000, total_invest_time: 70
total gain: 15.40633285548636%
Result analysis:
- DCA on TQQQ is more profitable than QYD (2x) and QQQ (1x).
- UPRO is as profitable as SPUU (2x) while it took more risk during the bear market
- UPRO is only 4% more profitable than SPY.